Grammy Nominations 2011: Eminem's A Top Contender With 'Recovery,' Jay-Z, Lady Gaga

If the Grammy nominations are anything to go by, 2011 might end up looking like the Emmys.

As in the Eminem-ies.

After all, how can the pale rapper lose?

He's got the top-selling album of the year, "Recovery," a fact which, yes, shouldn't matter in the realm of awards ostensibly handed out for creativity. But it does — more and more, in fact, as the record industry enters its end-of-days phase.

Then again, voting for the superpopular Emimen isn't like nominating the similarly crowd-pleasing Justin Bieber for Best New Artist — which actually happened this year. Unlike the critically disfavored Mr. Bieber, Em garnered the best reviews of the year, topped only by Kanye West's "My Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy," which came out too late to be eligible.Eminem also rates as one of only two artists nominated in all three top Grammy slots: Record, Song and Album of the Year. The other, Lady Antebellum, suffers for having come from Nashville, a place seen as flyover country by the industry's main voting blocs in New York and L.A.



Of course, Grammy history does have its upsets. Ask Tracy Chapman, who marched into the auditorium the favored candidate in '97, with a whopping five nominations, only to leave with just one minor trinket. Or, on a happier note, ask Herbie Hancock, who somehow snagged the Album of the Year prize in '08 for a jazzy take on Joni Mitchell songs, which nobody bought.

If Grammy voters want to send the ultimate raspberry to expectations this time, they could throw their ample girth behind Cee Lo's "F— You," which has bids in both the top Song and Record slots.

At least that would create an animated post-show discussion, as well as a dilemma for editors and audio censors during the event. (To minimize that, Cee Lo's song comes with its own family-friendly alterna-title: "Forget You")Should, by some fluke, the F-bomb win, it would certainly give this year's Grammys a can't-miss water cooler appeal. It's already a hoot that the song made its way this far to begin with. It's nothing more than a novelty number with no real emotion to speak of, not even malice. Cee Lo's delivery of the title phrase seems less a putdown than a wink.



On the other hand, there could be something covertly deep about all the hosannas for "F— You." It may represent the voters' unconscious admission that the commercial music they're obliged to toast has plunged so low, they don't even need to take their own awards seriously anymore.

It's nearly as sad a measure of the state of commercial music that Lady Antebellum represents the most processed Nashville pablum imaginable. It's catchy stuff to be sure. But creatively, it's no deeper than a puddle.

Not that the Antebellums pose a genuine threat to Em. A more substantial rival can be seen in Jay-Z and Alicia Keys' "Empire State of Mind," up for top record. It sounds like a standard, which voters may feel obliged to acknowledge less they suffer the wrath of history.Even so, Eminem's album comes with an angle practically guaranteed to trump all others. In track after track, it deals with the rapper's comeback from addiction, in the process delivering a triumph-over-adversity story of AA-meeting dreams. In case you miss the point, he did title the thing "Recovery," thus branding something award shows never tire of recognizing.



To be sure, it would be odd to see a mature and humble Eminem repeatedly ascend the stage tonight. He built his whole reputation on being a perverse, self-destructive, meanspirited brat. This newfangled Em isn't nearly as funny or radical as that one. And a fresh round of Grammy wins would only shave off evenmore of that edge.

Still, there's no denying the continued musicality of his flow, or the clever density of his verse. In a better world, those alone would earn him the wins.

However things turn out, Eminem won't be the entire story tonight. Here's a look at the other stars most likely to trot off with the trinkets in this year's top 10 categories:

BEST NEW ARTISTJustin Bieber
Drake
Florence & the Machine
Mumford & Sons
Esperanza Spalding
Bieber has the most commercial clout here, but voters could get some of that from Drake without feeling craven in the morning. Both Florence and Mumford & Sons have the critics' nod, though that could easily split that part of the vote. The only sure loser? The relatively obscure Spalding, a jazz bassist, vocalist and composer whose nominated work is called "Chamber Music Society." The likeliest winner? Popular and respected Drake.

BEST ELECTRONIC/DANCE ALBUM
"These Hopeful Machines" BT
"Further" The Chemical Brothers
"Head First" Goldfrapp
"Black Light" Groove Armada
"La Roux" La Roux
La Roux has an of-the-moment excitement, and the Chemical Brothers have the longest track record of hot beats. But the sheer fun of Goldfrapp's disk should clinch it in the end.

BEST ROCK ALBUM
"Emotion & Commotion" Jeff Beck
"The Resistance" Muse
"Backspacer" Pearl Jam
"Mojo" Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers
"Le Noise" Neil Young
Muse sold more CDs than anyone else here, but few folks know it. Young's album, a noise tone poem produced by Daniel Lanois, was too arty by half. And while Beck often wins Grammy hearts (as do the Heartbreakers), the revitalized, and sped-up, Pearl Jam put out the best rock effort this year, and are likely to be recognized for it.

BEST R&B ALBUM
"The Love & War Masterpiece" Raheem DeVaughn
"Back to Me" Fantasia
"Another Round" Jaheim
"Wake Up!" John Legend and the Roots
"Still Standing" Monica
It's between Fantasia and John Legend/the Roots this time, since they have the highest profiles. While Fantasia put out the better album, Legend is a Grammy pet, which will trump the fact that his album lacks any of the political fire that supposedly inspired it.

BEST RAP ALBUM
"The Adventures of Bobby Ray" B.o.B.
"Thank Me Later" Drake
"Recovery" Eminem
"The Blueprint 3" Jay-Z
"How I Got Over" The Roots
A powerhouse lineup turns up in this category. In other years, Jay might be the the front runner. But if Drake doesn't pull an upset, this one's Eminem's to lose.

BEST COUNTRY ALBUM
"Up on the Ridge" Dierks Bentley
"You Get What You Give" Zac Brown Band
"The Guitar Song" Jamey Johnson
"Need You Now" Lady Antebellum
"Revolution" Miranda Lambert
Brown bagged the Best New Artist Grammy last year, and Johnson hogs all the street cred. While Lambert may have a telling nod in the song category, even that can't beat Lady Antebellum, who'll take this one, as a wound-licker for losing the big three prizes.

PRODUCER OF THE YEAR (Non-classical)
Rob Cavallo
Danger Mouse
Dr. Luke
RedOne
The Smeezingtons
It's a three-way battle here. Immediately cross out Cavallo (whose top production was the less-than-huge-selling
Adam Lambert) as well as Danger Mouse (who's too left field). Luke worked with Katy Perry and Ke. And RedOne has the trendy Lady Gaga. Meanwhile, the Smeezingtons guided Cee Lo and Bruno Mars (who's also part of the production team). Considering the multiple nods for the last two stars, this should be a breeze for Smeeze.

ALBUM OF THE YEAR
"The Suburbs" Arcade Fire
"Recovery" Eminem
"Need You Now" Lady Antebellum
"The Fame Monster" Lady Gaga
"Teenage Dream" Katy Perry
Em's strongest competitor would be Gaga. She's got the star-of-the-hour-power. Still, this particular album feels like old news at this point, especially since there's a new one coming in just three months. Consider Em a lock.

RECORD OF THE YEAR(Awarded for production and performance)
"Nothin' on You" B.o.B featuring Bruno Mars
"Love the Way You Lie" Eminem featuring Rihanna
"F— You" Cee Lo
"Empire State of Mind" Jay-Z and Alicia Keys
"Need You Now" Lady Antebellum
The Jay-Z/Alicia twofer represents the only clear threat to Em. Their song has the feel of a classic that voters may not want to overlook. A tossup.

SONG OF THE YEAR(Awarded for the composition)
"Beg Steal or Borrow" Ray LaMontagne
"F— You" Cee Lo
"The House That Built Me" Miranda Lambert
"Love the Way You Lie" Eminem
"Need You Now" Lady Antebellum
A win for Cee Lo would be the most hilarious, and would make for the best headlines. But in a better world than this, LaMontagne would take it. Since we don't live in a better world, Em has this big prize in the bag.