On the morning of election day, stats whiz and prediction master Nate Silver gives President Obama a 91% chance of defeating Mitt Romney and getting reelected to another term. Silver correctly predicted the outcomes of 49 out of 50 states last election with a nuanced statistical model that factors in each polls bias, consistency and works in other factors, such as momentum and economic metrics.
Though not the slam dunk that the last election was, the President has seen his standing elevate by about 1.5 points on average just in the last few days (except for Republican-leaning Rasmussen that saw Romney one point better than he was a few days ago). Silver says that there is enough evidence to show that this is real movement, and not just random statistical noise. The President’s deft handling of Hurricane Sandy likely helped, as did positive economic news in recent weeks.
It’s taken almost his entire first term, but President Obama may have delivered the change he promised four years ago just in the nick of time.