Polls Show Donald Trump Has Almost No Chance Of Winning

by
Salman Haqqi
The latest electoral math according to polls is showing that Donald Trump’s chances of winning the 2016 Presidential Election to be almost nil.

To borrow of phrase from Yogi Berra, it keeps "getting late early" for Donald Trump.

When Trump kicked off his campaign a little over 15 months ago, he loved the polls. He quoted them ad nauseam and used them as proof that his message was resonating with the people.

With just 15 days left in the 2016 presidential race, in what has been probably the most volatile and venomous campaign in recent memory, that love has since soured significantly, as the polls are painting a bleak picture for the former reality television host.

Florida, the state that gave us Bush v. Gore is largely considered to be a must-win for Trump — it’s the whole ball game. According to Real Clear Politics, four of the five most recent polls have Hillary Clinton leading by an average of nearly 4 points, while the latest poll is calling the race to be a virtual dead heat.

At the same time, FiveThirtyEight, which called the 2012 election with 100 percent accuracy, says the Sunshine State is looking gloomy for Trump with Clinton having a nearly 74 percent chance of taking the state’s 29 electoral votes.

Hillary Clinton

Then there’s Nevada, which for much of the election season was considered a “toss-up” state that had always edged towards Trump. Now, he is seeing his numbers fall. It it possible that Nevada’s significant Latino community is starting to turn on him?

Trump, who famously kicked off his campaign by calling Mexican’s rapists, has never wasted an opportunity to offend Latinos. Recently, the Culinary Union organized a protest against Trump, by lining up a “wall” of taco trucks outside his hotel in Las Vegas. It looks like he may be reaping the results of his rhetoric in Nevada.  

One of the real surprises of this election season has to be Utah. The ultra-conservative, majority Mormon and Republican stronghold, hasn’t gone democrat since 1964, but is now in play. Much of that has to do with come-from-nowhere candidate Evan McMullin, a former CIA official and Utah native who has  risen as an orthodox conservative candidate where family values play an important role.

For many republicans in Utah, the release of the Access Hollywood tape showing Trump speaking of women in a lewd, sexual manner was the tipping point that led to calls for Trump to stand down. McMullin is siphoning votes away from Trump’s column, and we may see an Independent write-in candidate take Utah’s six electoral votes.

But the ultimate shocker may be Texas. The Lone Star State has been solidly republican since 1976. Republicans have banked on its 38 electoral votes, the same way Democrats count on California.

Yet in 2016, Texas is considered to be leaning republican, rather than a safe bet. While in all likelihood, Texas will still go red as FiveThirtyEight gives Trump a more than 80 percent chance of winning, the fact that his lead is in single digits, is indicative of how poorly Trump is doing with long-time republicans.

Arizona, which is Senator John McCain’s home state and historically safe republican territory, is now in play. At the same time, Clinton is also leading in traditional swing states such as Colorado and Virginia, albeit with single-digit leads, according to RealClearPolitics.

At the end of the day, this election is all about electoral math. And while Trump and his fans are claiming that the polls are “phony,” or that the whole election is "rigged" unfortunately for them, reality has a liberal bias.

 

According to 270toWin, Trump has 157 electoral votes locked to Clinton's 258, just 12 votes shy of the magic number of 270 and with 123 up for grabs.

A report by the Washington Post, however, gives Clinton a reason to celebrate as it shows her getting a likelihood of 323 electoral votes to Trump's 180.

Many people are already considering the race to be over, the only question being: How big will Clinton win?

It also blows open the door to the possibility of what could be an earth-shattering upset for the republicans in the House of Representatives.

But don’t fret Trump fans, for Trump TV is just around the corner. 

Read More: Trump Doesn't Mind Losing Because Then He Can Take A Vacation
Banner Photo: Reuters
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