With the election finally upon us, the polls have settled into a clear picture: Obama is a clear favorite. What Romney needs, even more than turnout, is for the polls to be wrong. En masse. According to Real Clear Politics, the last twelve polls in Ohio have all put Obama ahead, except for one, Rasmussen, that had the two candidates tied. More than any other person or organization, a Romney win would be redemptive for Rasmussen, who has a more consistent Republican lean than any other major pollster. To secure a victory, Romney needs Rasmussen to be right, as in correct, and for all the other major pollsters (save Gallup, who also shows better numbers for Romney) to be wrong. Rasmussen also puts Romney ahead in Virginia, while most other polls show the race tied or give Obama a small lead. Ditto with New Hampshire, where most pollsters give Obama around a two point lead, but Rasmussen shows the reverse.
Historically, Rasmussen has been shown to skew to the right, not only against other pollsters but against the actual vote. In this election, either history will repeat itself, or Rasmussen will finally get to say, “I told you so!”
Image source: Reuters