Nate Silver, famous for his accurate, statistically-based political predictions, and before that his surprisingly accurate baseball predictions, has moved on to the Super Bowl. His bet: the New England Patriots vs. the Seattle Seahawks. He explained on ESPN's First Take that while the Seahawks are not the top-ranked team in the NFC, they are the most balanced, and most impressive in the second half of the season:
In terms of the balance overall between offensive and defensive play, Seattle had that best balance throughout the year and... in the second half, were blowing people out by 50-to-7 scores and so forth.
Seattle, however is not the second best team in the entire NFL, according to Silver. That would be the Denver Broncos, led by a newly reenergized Peyton Manning. If the Patriots and Broncos met in the AFC Championship, Silver said that could be a sort of "de facto Super Bowl."
Football, Silver explained, is harder to predict than baseball, due to its smaller sample size (a football season is 16 games, one tenth that of baseball), but there are metrics that provide some insight into not just what did happen, but what will happen. When it comes to predicting the future, Nate Silver is as safe a bet as you are going to get.