Computer Algorithm Predicts Who Will Die Next On 'Game Of Thrones'

When you play the game of thrones, you win or you die – and now science has an answer to which character is most likely to bite the dust in the upcoming season.

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Being a fan of George R.R. Martin’s best-selling fantasy series “A Song of Ice and Fire” and its hit HBO adaptation “Game of Thrones” is not an easy experience. Reason: It is almost impossible to commit to one character — or have a favorite character at all  in the series because you never know when and how they will meet their end.

Therefore, in an attempt to figure out who might die in the upcoming season of “Game of Thrones,” a group of computer science students at Technical University of Munich, Germany, created an algorithm to predict the fate of characters who are still alive.

The project, aptly dubbed “A Song of Ice and Data,” analyzed online information about the books and the TV series mostly from the famous fan-based Wiki of Ice and Fire encyclopedia and social media. Using the data, the algorithm compared more than 20 characters based on their age, title, gender, number of dead relations and popularity to try to figure out what made a character most likely to die.

“This project has been a lot of fun for us,” said Guy Yachdav, the project leader. “In its daily work, our research group focuses on answering complex biological questions using data mining and machine learning algorithms. For this project we used similar techniques. Only this time the subject matter was a popular TV show. The epic scale of the worlds created by George R. R. Martin provides an almost endless resource of raw multi-dimensional data. It provided the perfect setting for our class.”

Read More: Math Has Calculated The Most Important Character In ‘Game Of Thrones’

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The calculations revealed the poor boy-king, Tommen Baratheon, has a 97 percent chance of dying since he is vulnerable and relatively easy to kill. He also has a prophecy working against him, so there is a chance he will not survive the upcoming season of the show.

Other characters in peril include Stannis Baratheon (96 percent), Daenerys Targaryen (95 percent), Davos Seaworth(91 percent) and Petyr Baelish (91 percent).

As for Jon Snow, the 998th Lord Commander of the Night’s Watch only has 11 percent probability of dying — making the devastating season 5 finale statically shocking. It also gives us hope that there might be some truth in all those theories about Snow’s resurrection at the hands of God of Light.

Season six of “Game of Thrones” premieres Sunday, April 24, on HBO.

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