Latest Election Model Predicts Big Win For Hillary Clinton

A week before Election Day, Moody’s final prediction model for the 2016 presidential Election is forecasting Hillary Clinton as the winner.


With just one week left in this unending presidential race, what started out as a campaign between two differing visions for the country has morphed into a gladiatorial battle of competing polls and prediction models.

Moody's Analytics model, which uses only economic and political indicators to predict the outcome of the election, has released its final prediction before Election Day.

According to Moody, Hillary Clinton will win big league.

The model, which has accurately forecasted the winner of every U.S. presidential race since Ronald Reagan in 1980, is predicting a decisive win for the Democratic presidential candidate.

Clinton is predicted to win 332 electoral votes to Donald Trump’s 20, easily crossing the 270 electoral vote threshold needed to win the presidency.

As more and more Americans feel more financially secure, they are more likely to vote Democrat rather than Republican.

Because of this, key swings states such as Florida, which is a must-win state for Trump, along with Ohio, Colorado, and Pennsylvania is slated to go Democrat this year.

Much to the chagrin of Republicans, more Americans feel that President Barack Obama’s handling of the economy has led to an improvement in their personal finances, which is evident in the president’s 57 percent approval rating according to Gallup.

And the proof is in the pudding.

Between July and September of 2016, the U.S. economy expanded at a rate of 2.9 percent, which is the fastest growth in the past two years.

With gas prices down and incomes rising, Americans feel that they are better off then they were eight years ago when the US economy experienced the worst recession since the Great Depression of 1929.

President Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton

Clinton, who has astutely championed herself as the natural successor to the Obama presidency, is now reaping the benefits.

According to Dan White, a senior economist at Moody's who worked on the 2016 Election Model, Obama’s rising final-year approval rating is unprecedented.

"Historically, no incumbent president since Ronald Reagan in 1988 has had a surge anywhere close to [Obama's] magnitude in their eighth year in office," White says.

The Moody’s prediction, however, comes with a rather large asterisk as this election cycle has proved to be nothing like others before it.

While the Moody’s model uses economic factors such as the two-year change in real household income, real home price growth and gas prices, the political factors it takes into account are the two-year change in the president's approval rating, political fatigue and how much a state leans Democratic.

What it doesn’t take into account are the two candidates as individuals, who have been the most polarizing candidates to ever run for the presidency in recent history.

Both candidates come into this election with serious baggage.

Throughout the campaign Clinton has been dogged by her email scandal which was made worse by FBI Director James Comey's reopening of the investigation so close to the election. This is on top of Wikileaks’ almost daily release of her campaign chairman, John Podesta’s hacked emails.

Trump, on the other hand, has had to deal with allegations of sexual assault that have piled up after the release of the Access Hollywood tape.

There are also his racist remarks about Judge Gonzalo Curiel, his refusal to release his taxes, the upcoming trial regarding Trump University and, let’s not forget, a hearing in the case for allegedly raping a 13-year-old girl.

With the media largely choosing to focus solely on the candidates’ individual transgressions, alleged or otherwise, nobody knows what the American people will actually decide to base their votes on.

After two years of conflicting polls and predictions, numbers just don’t have much meaning anymore.

Perhaps, it’s time for a novel idea. Let’s let the people vote and see what happens. 

Banner Photo: Reuters

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