The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) unveiled its monthly top ten global risks, and the possibility of a Donald Trump presidency has jumped the ranks to the number six spot, a notch higher than even “the rising threat of jihadi terrorism destabilizes the global economy.”
The number one global risk is a “sharp economic slowdown” in China; other risks include a fracturing European Union and Russian intervention in Syria and Ukraine.
The EIU specifically notes that a Trump presidency could lead to increased chaos in the Middle East due to his pledges to commit war crimes (such as killing family members of terrorists), acting as a “potent recruitment tool for jihadi groups, increasing their threat both within the region and beyond.” It also posits that Trump would destroy U.S. trade partnerships with numerous countries, such as NAFTA and the TPP.
The threat Trump poses to the world’s geopolitical balance is incredible—until now, the EIU has never ranked the potential election of a candidate within its global risk assessment.
According to Politico, Robert Powell, global risk briefing manager at EIU, stated in an interview that, “I don’t think we ever have done it where we’ve had a single politician be the center of our risk items…the prospects for a trade war are quite high.”
He continued that, “One of [Trump’s] extreme positions has been to invade Syria to wipe out ISIS,” which could cost the U.S. $25 billion and up to 30,000 troops.
Both the EIU write-up and Powell acknowledge the impossibility of definitively predicting what Trump will attempt to do during his presidency, due to his opinions which “shift…like the weather,” along with the fact that Hillary Clinton would likely defeat Trump in a general election match-up.
However, the notion that Trump’s presidency could so highly threaten the entire world economy is one of the most terrifying realities of the current election.
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